Time series prediction via aggregation : an oracle bound including numerical cost

We address the problem of forecasting a time series meeting the Causal Bernoulli Shift model, using a parametric set of predictors. The aggregation technique provides a predictor with well established and quite satisfying theoretical properties expressed by an oracle inequality for the prediction risk. The numerical computation of the aggregated predictor usually relies on a Markov chain Monte Carlo method whose convergence should be evaluated. In particular, it is crucial to bound the number of simulations needed to achieve a numerical precision of the same order as the prediction risk. In this direction we present a fairly general result which can be seen as an oracle inequality including the numerical cost of the predictor computation. The numerical cost appears by letting the oracle inequality depend on the number of simulations required in the Monte Carlo approximation. Some numerical experiments are then carried out to support our findings

Interacting Multiple Try Algorithms with Different Proposal Distributions

We propose a new class of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms designed for increasing the efficiency of a modified multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) algorithm. The extension with respect to the existing MCMC literature is twofold. The sampler proposed extends the basic MTM algorithm by allowing different proposal distributions in the multiple-try generation step. We exploit the structure of the MTM algorithm with different proposal distributions to naturally introduce an interacting MTM mechanism (IMTM) that expands the class of population Monte Carlo methods. We show the validity of the algorithm and discuss the choice of the selection weights and of the different proposals. We provide numerical studies which show that the new algorithm can perform better than the basic MTM algorithm and that the interaction mechanism allows the IMTM to efficiently explore the state space

An Adaptive Interacting Wang-Landau Algorithm for Automatic Density Exploration

While statisticians are well-accustomed to performing exploratory analysis in the modeling stage of an analysis, the notion of conducting preliminary general-purpose exploratory analysis in the Monte Carlo stage (or more generally, the model-fitting stage) of an analysis is an area which we feel deserves much further attention. Towards this aim, this paper proposes a general-purpose algorithm for automatic density exploration. The proposed exploration algorithm combines and expands upon components from various adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, with the Wang-Landau algorithm at its heart. Additionally, the algorithm is run on interacting parallel chains -- a feature which both decreases computational cost as well as stabilizes the algorithm, improving its ability to explore the density. Performance is studied in several applications. Through a Bayesian variable selection example, the authors demonstrate the convergence gains obtained with interacting chains. The ability of the algorithm's adaptive proposal to induce mode-jumping is illustrated through a trimodal density and a Bayesian mixture modeling application. Lastly, through a 2D Ising model, the authors demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to overcome the high correlations encountered in spatial models.Comment: 33 pages, 20 figures (the supplementary materials are included as appendices

Accelerating MCMC Algorithms

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to simulate from complex statistical distributions by way of a local exploration of these distributions. This local feature avoids heavy requests on understanding the nature of the target, but it also potentially induces a lengthy exploration of this target, with a requirement on the number of simulations that grows with the dimension of the problem and with the complexity of the data behind it. Several techniques are available towards accelerating the convergence of these Monte Carlo algorithms, either at the exploration level (as in tempering, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and partly deterministic methods) or at the exploitation level (with Rao-Blackwellisation and scalable methods).Comment: This is a survey paper, submitted WIREs Computational Statistics, to with 6 figure

On Russian Roulette estimates for Bayesian inference with doubly-intractable likelihoods

A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard inference techniques to sample from the posterior, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), cannot be used. Examples include, but are not confined to, massive Gaussian Markov random fields, autologistic models and Exponential random graph models. A number of approximate schemes based on MCMC techniques, Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) or analytic approximations to the posterior have been suggested, and these are reviewed here. Exact MCMC schemes, which can be applied to a subset of doubly-intractable distributions, have also been developed and are described in this paper. As yet, no general method exists which can be applied to all classes of models with doubly-intractable posteriors. In addition, taking inspiration from the Physics literature, we study an alternative method based on representing the intractable likelihood as an infinite series. Unbiased estimates of the likelihood can then be obtained by finite time stochastic truncation of the series via Russian Roulette sampling, although the estimates are not necessarily positive. Results from the Quantum Chromodynamics literature are exploited to allow the use of possibly negative estimates in a pseudo-marginal MCMC scheme such that expectations with respect to the posterior distribution are preserved. The methodology is reviewed on well-known examples such as the parameters in Ising models, the posterior for Fisher-Bingham distributions on the d-Sphere and a largescale Gaussian Markov Random Field model describing the Ozone Column data. This leads to a critical assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology with pointers to ongoing research

On Russian Roulette estimates for Bayesian inference with doubly-intractable likelihoods

A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard inference techniques to sample from the posterior, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), cannot be used. Examples include, but are not confined to, massive Gaussian Markov random fields, autologistic models and Exponential random graph models. A number of approximate schemes based on MCMC techniques, Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) or analytic approximations to the posterior have been suggested, and these are reviewed here. Exact MCMC schemes, which can be applied to a subset of doubly-intractable distributions, have also been developed and are described in this paper. As yet, no general method exists which can be applied to all classes of models with doubly-intractable posteriors. In addition, taking inspiration from the Physics literature, we study an alternative method based on representing the intractable likelihood as an infinite series. Unbiased estimates of the likelihood can then be obtained by finite time stochastic truncation of the series via Russian Roulette sampling, although the estimates are not necessarily positive. Results from the Quantum Chromodynamics literature are exploited to allow the use of possibly negative estimates in a pseudo-marginal MCMC scheme such that expectations with respect to the posterior distribution are preserved. The methodology is reviewed on well-known examples such as the parameters in Ising models, the posterior for Fisher-Bingham distributions on the d-Sphere and a largescale Gaussian Markov Random Field model describing the Ozone Column data. This leads to a critical assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology with pointers to ongoing research